I've been hearing a lot of discussion lately (and it really is a continuation of previous or other on-going discussions) about how the world is about to change big time and planners need to help get everyone ready for the change. The scenarios for this sudden change are usually about a dramatic alteration in our sources of energy, or sudden changes in climate (and the two are pretty closely linked together).
While I agree that change is coming and we need to think about it and plan for it, I take some exception to the sudden, almost doomsday nature of it. It's almost as if (again) there's some specific point in time for it (like the end of the Mayan calendar in December 2012).
What's gotten me to thinking about this is a very good book I've been reading, called The Quest, by Daniel Yergin. Mr. Yergin is a noted expert on energy who won the Pulitzer for his book in the 1990's on the same topic, The Prize. Also an excellent book.
While lengthy and quite detailed, The Quest brings us up to date on the energy situation in the world, what's happening, and how it fits in politically and economically in global events. While acknowledging that there will be an end to fossil fuels sometime (they are indeed finite), it is remarkable what has been discovered, what technology has made possible, and what economic and political policies are doing. Suffice it to say that "judgement day" is coming, but it's still a ways off. More likely, because energy resources of all kinds have become global commodities in truly global markets in recent years, the issues may be more economic in the coming years.
What this all leads me to is yes, we need to plan for a future that is different, but we have some time. We don't need to rush and force things that may make people rebel. Climate change is part of this as well, and there is a good point for saying here that we need to start making changes for climate sake, because it's a long fuse. And why should we make those changes? Even if you're a climate skeptic, former Sen. Bob Bennett put it well in a recent opinion piece he wrote, saying that doing the things that we should for climate change, are also just good, common-sense things to be doing anyway.
I commend all the reading stuff I've linked to above, take a look, it'll make you think...
An excerpt from The Quest:
One of Mr. Yergin’s closing arguments focuses on the importance of thinking seriously about one energy source that “has the potential to have the biggest impact of all.” That source is efficiency. It’s a simple idea, he points out, but one that is oddly “the hardest to wrap one’s mind around.” More efficient buildings, cars, airplanes, computers and other products have the potential to change our world.
So does old-fashioned individual action. Mr. Yergin turns to the Japanese, who have rarely had abundant natural resources. He brings up the notion of “mottainai,” a word that is difficult to translate into English yet explains why the Japanese save wrapping paper from gifts to use again and again. The best translation of “mottainai,” Mr. Yergin writes, is “too precious to waste.”
